When Google announced its operating system, the entire world press took this opportunity to announce that Google had finally opened fire at Microsoft. Bill Gates was going to have it now, because Google was stepping on his turf and, of course, was going to make a better operating system than Windows. Well, no.
First of all I don’t think that Google OS even qualifies as a truly new operating system. It is basically Chrome slapped on an altered Linux kernel. Which raised the question; why did Google release that operating system? And, does Microsoft really have something to fear?
The answers to these questions lie in the long term visions of both companies. I am by no means an insider to either Google or Microsoft, but that doesn’t matter. The direction of their steps gives away their destination…
The vision that Google obviously has of the world in 10 years is that most applications will be cloud applications. We will once again move from a de-centralized to a centralized model of computing, as we did before when the mainframe was invented. Only this time we will use the computing power over the Internet.
Google has made sure over the last few years that it has a firm grip on anything that has to do with this vision. They have an online application suite, a search engine, map software and a host of followers who make sure their products stay firmly in place. These followers build upon Google software, making it better and using it for ever new online applications.
Business model
Google has a business model which allows it to develop open source software and give that to the community for free. Haven’t you ever learned that nothing in the world is free? Neither is using Google software. Google takes every opportunity they get to build a personal profile of YOU. That’s right, YouTube, Google Search, Maps, every single service they offer for free they can use to build your profile.
Why is that important? Because Google sells ads. But they only get paid when people click an ad. And people are more likely to click an ad that relates to their interests. For example, I am more likely to click a link about Ultimate Frisbee than I would be clicking a link about Lacrosse. So if Google can get enough information about me, they can show me ‘better’ ads, which makes them more money.
Future
In the future, the Internet will be all about Google. That is how big their current grip is on the medium and there is no way to stop it anymore. Google will provide about 80% of the big online applications within the next couple of years. By big applications I mean their search engine, Maps and of course the new Wavesoftware, which ambitiously tries to replace e-mail and integrate into weblogs and forums. Is this bad? Well only if Google cannot shake their fear of going from ‘beta’ to live, because overall their software is actually pretty good.
So how does Google OS fit into all of this? Google OS is meant to be run on net-books, which is why they released it. Net-books are used for using the Internet, and are lightweight performance wise. This is seamless expansion of Google’s plan to dominate every bit of software that is relevant to the Internet.
Microsoft
Microsoft on the other hand has a completely different vision. While they acknowledge that online ads are a good soure of income and they undoubtedly want to eat a piece of this big pie, it is not their core business. Nor will it ever be. Microsoft builds software, and especially operating systems. The fact that Office is such a good product for them is still something I consider to be a lucky strike. Microsoft wanted a piece of the WordPerfect pie and eventually took over that market. This however was good because it made sure they sold more operating systems. The same goes for the Internet Explorer versus Netscape battle. Microsoft wants to sell operating systems.
Business Model
As stated above Microsoft wants to sell operating systems. But they already sell almost every single operating system right? Well, yes and no. Right now the PC is still the top-dog when it comes to computers. But in the next 10 years we’ll be seeing a shift. Already we are seeing more and more powerful smartphones, netbooks and mp3 players. Some people think these devices will be integrated and to a certain extent this is true. The MP3 player will suffer the same fate as the PDA, being completely integrated into what we still know as the mobile phone. The mobile phone however, will be a general mobile internet device, which will allow you to call using voip, browse the Internet, play games, listen to music and so on. Microsoft wants to sell operating systems for all of these.
Future
But these are all markets Microsoft is already a big player in, so what about the future? Have you ever wondered why Microsoft launched the X-Box? Or why they kept MSN Live going while it wasn’t bringing in any money? Have you ever heard of the Microsoft Coffee Machine and did you know Microsoft builds car operating systems?
Much like Google, Microsoft believes in a decentralized world. But unlike Google, Microsoft has targeted machines that need operating systems. Their vision: your car, television, mp3 player, mobile Internet device, coffee maker, home entertainement system (X-Box anyone?) even your watch will communicate with each other. And if Microsoft delivers operating systems for more than 50% of these devices, they have a good chance of delivering the other 50% as well. Because it is easier to build compatible systems running on the same operating system.
Will Google acquire Microsoft?
Personally I think the markets described above are not similar enough to warrant Google acquiring Microsoft or the other way around. Both companies are currently too big to be acquired as well. It all depends on how computers will evolve and if they will still need as big an operating system in years to come. Also, the evolution of the Internet will be interesting to watch. Right now these markets are fairly stable and Microsoft and Google are pulling their weight to keep it that way. But if another big revolution comes, either company can easily be outclassed by small newcomers; and Microsoft as well as Google should know this, as they both started this way!
Sat, Aug 15, 2009
Entrepreneurship